June is often marked by what Philip Eden called the "June Return of the Westerlies" in his book Weatherwise, with a high frequency of blocking early in June but a tendency for a westerly type to set in later in the month with high pressure over the Azores and low pressure moving over the top. After a wet and stormy winter season, spring is set to arrive early across the United Kingdom -- and conditions that were a concern over the last few springs are not expected to repeat. What does summer 2020 have in store? This could point to a north-south split with relatively cool and changeable weather for the north, and warm dry weather in the south. Independent Premium Comments can be posted by members of our membership scheme, Independent Premium. The long-range CFS based forecasts from NOAA are strongly agreed on a drier than average June, but with more mixed signals for July and August, though the majority of the ensembles are pointing towards a dry July for the south of Britain. Rainfall totals for the summer look set to be below normal, especially for the south of Britain, but with lower confidence in the rainfall anomalies for northern Britain, due to uncertainties over rainfall in July and August, especially July. An inquest into his death is currently ongoing, A flypast to mark the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Britain flies over Westminster Abbey, London, People sit outside on a street closed to traffic to try to reduce the spread of coronavirus so bars and restaurants can continue to stay open, in the Soho area of central London. The TWO summer forecast will be issued in late May but before then we will issue two updates taking a look at what the latest data is suggesting. They are for the meteorological summer as a whole and there is a chance that extreme swings are cancelling each other out to an extent. Local weather forecasts: Enter a place or UK postcode or use, The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has. You can also choose to be emailed when someone replies to your comment. Conor has spent an extra £5000 to make it extra special due to the covid pandemic, Chief of Defence Staff General Sir Nick Carter (centre) joining members of all three armed services, in Waterloo Station, London, to support the Royal British Legions Poppy Appeal by collecting donations and selling poppies on London Poppy Day, Surfers take to high waves caused by Atlantic swells in Mullaghmore in Co Sligo, A rare giant Japanese spider crab is moved into the sale room during a preview of the forthcoming Evolution Sale at Summers Place Auctions, Billinghurst, West Sussex, A television crew prepare to do a live transmission opposite the Nave Andromeda, an oil tanker berthed at Southampton docks, southwest England. The NMME ensemble for the Nino 3.4 region is pointing towards a likelihood of a weakly negative ENSO state for the latter part of 2020, developing quickly during the summer. The protest was organised to enable the students to show their anger and disappointment to the University of Edinburgh, after the students felt they were misled after they returned to find the vast majority of their lectures and contacts were all online, The sun rises over the Severn crossing as traffic crosses from England into Wales, where a countrywide firebrake lockdown will begin from 6pm today until 12.01am on 9 November, EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier wearing an EU-flag themed face mask arriving at a conference centre in central London to attend a new round of trade talks with the UK. The heatwave at the end of August saw the highest temperatures on record for the late August bank holiday. Despite the slightly above average sea level pressure, the ensembles are going for above average rainfall over the British Isles. The predictions possibly favour an increased chance of settled weather in the UK during the late summer. Phase 3 is associated with a higher frequency of westerly types. The artwork was commissioned as part of Bournemouth's Arts by the Sea festival, Police move in to disperse protesters in Trafalgar Square in London, at a 'We Do Not Consent!' The Netweather.tv atmospheric circulation forecasts, based on the long-range CFS, go for a less westerly than average June with a large positive pressure anomaly centre to the west of Britain, near average pressure in July and slightly above average pressure (by 0.5-1 hPa) during August. “So it will be a cooler couple of days on Monday and Tuesday and then it will start to warm up again as we head into the latter part of next week. Due to the uncertainty over August's temperatures, however, there is about 20-30% chance of the summer as a whole turning out somewhat warmer than that, with positive anomalies of over 1.5C in the south. mass rally against vaccination and government restrictions designed to fight the spread of the novel coronavirus, including the wearing of masks and taking tests for the virus, Flowers are laid down outside the custody centre where a police officer was shot dead in Croydon, south London, A member of the Jewish community inspects an Lulav, which makes up one of the 'Four Species', or Arba Minim in Hebrew, before purchasing in London, England. By by simonwakefield , via Wikimedia Commons. For both July and August, temperatures look set to be closer to normal, but confidence in this is lower. The anomalies in the table may not be telling the complete story. That will introduce some fresher conditions for many areas. Several forecasts for the 2020 Hurricane Season have been issued. The Met Office ensemble mean has very slightly above average mean sea level pressure and temperatures for the summer, but overall points to a near average summer. The late June heatwave broke numerous temperature records in continental Europe (though not in the UK). It is a part of the Mayflower 400: Legend and Legacy exhibition, the UK's largest ever commemorative exhibition on the Mayflower. High pressure and northerly winds both looks set to be more frequent than usual in June and August, but with a cyclonic tendency for July. August Forecast: Late Summer Celebrations. There were some notable rainfall events during this summer, including exceptional three day rainfall totals centred on Lincolnshire during 10-12 June, exceptional rainfall in the Midlands and north of England near the end of July, and a very wet August in north-western Britain. Autumn could begin in earnest after final burst of summer heat, meteorologists say, Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile. June looks set to see a continuation of the sort of weather patterns that we've been seeing during May, with some cool northerlies early in the month, but overall the month looks set to be warmer, drier and more anticyclonic than average. For example hot and dry periods may be offset by cool and wet ones leading to a close to average outcome overall. Thus, now it is the Bering/Chukchi Sea area that has high sea ice extent for recent years, while in the Norwegian and Russian Arctic it is currently low. You can find our Community Guidelines in full here. Summer 2019 was a mixed summer with near-average temperatures and sunshine amounts for most of the time, but it seemed that every time we got a heatwave of note, it broke new records. The Junes of those years, on average, were somewhat less westerly than usual over Britain, with the Julys tending to be cyclonic/south-westerly, and the Augusts being more northerly than usual. The new polar ship will transform UK research in the polar regions and will be used on BAS missions which are critical for understanding and making sense of changing climate. There is around 70% confidence in a drier than average June over much of the country. Summer 2019 forecast will be released on Sunday 26th May For July, the composites point to a low pressure anomaly over Scandinavia, indicating a high frequency of cyclonic/north-westerly weather. This mean sea level pressure anomaly chart looks strikingly similar to the one that was forecast by the composites for the spring quarter, but with a weaker signal - the high pressure anomaly centre is about +2.5mb and lies to the west of the British Isles. June looks set to be drier than normal over much of the UK, with a mix of anticyclonic and northerly types both bringing predominantly dry weather. 1995 and 2007 recur a lot in the analogues, so they are worth mentioning as comparison points. Using the MEI v2 ENSO values, the nearest analogues for the current situation are 1981, 1995, 2005 and 2007 - note that the UK had some very contrasting summers in those years! UK severe weather warnings; Surface pressure charts; Follow us on. They were rescued after being found abandoned on the North East coast, Edinburgh University students protest against the false promise of 'hybrid learning' to new and returning students during the Covid-19 pandemic in Edinburgh, Scotland.
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